Florida Gubernatorial Race
First off, Florida is mischaracterized as a "swing state". This conclusion is not based on our congressional delegation, which, at 18-7, is heavily skewed towards Republicans because of redistricting tactics. Hopefully, voters will approve a measure this upcoming November which would institute a non-partisan committee that will eliminate "gerrymandering" and completely redraw the congressional lines. But I digress...
Ignoring useless voter registration data, a significant portion of Florida Democrats began voting Republican during the "Reagan era". While this may not be characteristic of all who "converted" during this era, taxes and "bloated and inefficient" social services seem to be the issues that prompted conversion. The "religious right" is not as major a factor in Florida politics as it is in other parts of the country (Deep South and Midwest), however it still holds sway in Republican primaries, since they vote disproportionate to their size. The injection of the Cuban populace (approximately 10% of the state population), who vote disproportionaly Republican and who also vote disproportionately to their size in primaries, has led to the election of a Cuban Senator (Mel Martinez) and 3 representatives (Ros-Lehtinen, and the Diaz-Balarts). It is the Cuban vote, and disaffected "Reagan Democrats", who tilt the state to the right.
The Florida gubernatorial race is, objectively speaking, the most interesting (and intriguing) race of the upcoming election cycle. Popular incumbent John Ellis Bush, cleverly truncated with the acronymic device "Jeb", is term limited. While his future plans are unknown, the race to replace him is certainly wide open. Two Republicans, Attorney General Charlie Crist and CFO Tom Gallager, face off the the Republican primary. U.S. Representative Jim Davis and State Senator Rod Smith face off in the Democratic primary. What follows is a brief profile of each candidate, and my predictions as to the fate of each:
Republicans:
Mostly because of the above, Republicans are slightly favored to keep the seat. I say "slightly" because the recent Abramoff scandals and generally low popularity of the president have taken its toll on the Republican party in Florida. Still, it is their seat to lose.
Charlie Crist: He is the favorite of "big business". the Cubans and Donald Trump (a Florida resident). He has raised $7 million, nearly half of the $15 million all candidates from both parties have raised. Crist has won two statewide elections, as Education Commissioner and most recently Attorney General.
Tom Gallager: Gallager is running to the right of Crist, and as a result has gained the de facto support of the "religious right" - a group that could comprise nearly 20% of primary voters on September 7. Gallager has run for statewide office more than a half-dozen times. His name identification is high, and he has raised $5.3 million dollars, ensuring a bruising primary for the Republican nomination. More of a "policy wonk" than Crist, Gallager is familiar with the issues and overshadowed Crist in a recent debate.
Democrats:
The Abramoff scandal, Bush's low popularity, and the guarantee of a bloody Republican primary bode well for the Democrats. However, neither candidate has raised nearly as much money as their Republican counterparts. Parity will be achieved, however, since the Republican candidates will surely blow their stuffed coffers during the primary. Neither Democratic candidate has run statewide, and as a result 3 out of 4 likely democratic primary voters don't know how they will vote. The major endorsement they are fighting for is the Teachers Union, Big Labor and Blacks (Davis has won support from U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown and Alcee Hastings, two prominent black leaders). However, unlike the Republican primary, the Democratic primary will most likely be low key, largely because Democrats can't afford a bloodbath and expect to win in November.
Jim Davis: Smith has been endorsed by former governor and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, former Democratic Party Chairman Scott Maddox, former Lt. Gov. Buddy MacKay and Rhea Chiles, the widow of popular former Gov. Lawton Chiles. Davis has raised $1.6 million. Republicans plan to cast Davis as a liberal, because his voting record in the House has adhered closely with the party line. His speeches are not real fiery, and some have compared him to a dose of "Sominex". However, he is slightly favored to take the nomination.
Rod Smith: Smith's is endorsed by former Attorney General Bob Butterworth, and a whole passel of state lawmakers and law-enforcement officials, including several sheriffs in predominately republican counties. These endorsements come as a result of Smith's "law and order" credentials gained during his tenure as a prosecutor. Smith has raised $1.3 million. Smith is the only Democrat who has unseated two Republican incumbents in Florida's heartland. Smith's populist ideology and "law and order" credentials have garnered him significant "crossover appeal" from Republicans. In a recent debate, the crowd was enamored with Smith, largely in part because of his humor and ability to connect with the average voter (he worked on his father's dirt farm).
Prediction: Crist will take the Republican nomination in a close election, largely because he has more money and the backing of most of the Republican infrastructure in the state. Smith will take the Democratic nomination, largely because his populist message will appeal to the Teachers Union and Big Labor. In the general, Smith will come out the winner. He connects with voters much better than Crist, his populist message will have appeal, his credentials as a "law and order" candidate will continue to invite crossover votes from Republicans as it has in the past, and the external Abramoff scandals and low Bush popularity will further serve to catapult Smith to victory.
Republican Primary: Crist 52%, Gallagher 48%.
Democratic Primary: Smith 54%, Davis 46%.
General Election: Smith 51%, Crist 49%.
Ignoring useless voter registration data, a significant portion of Florida Democrats began voting Republican during the "Reagan era". While this may not be characteristic of all who "converted" during this era, taxes and "bloated and inefficient" social services seem to be the issues that prompted conversion. The "religious right" is not as major a factor in Florida politics as it is in other parts of the country (Deep South and Midwest), however it still holds sway in Republican primaries, since they vote disproportionate to their size. The injection of the Cuban populace (approximately 10% of the state population), who vote disproportionaly Republican and who also vote disproportionately to their size in primaries, has led to the election of a Cuban Senator (Mel Martinez) and 3 representatives (Ros-Lehtinen, and the Diaz-Balarts). It is the Cuban vote, and disaffected "Reagan Democrats", who tilt the state to the right.
The Florida gubernatorial race is, objectively speaking, the most interesting (and intriguing) race of the upcoming election cycle. Popular incumbent John Ellis Bush, cleverly truncated with the acronymic device "Jeb", is term limited. While his future plans are unknown, the race to replace him is certainly wide open. Two Republicans, Attorney General Charlie Crist and CFO Tom Gallager, face off the the Republican primary. U.S. Representative Jim Davis and State Senator Rod Smith face off in the Democratic primary. What follows is a brief profile of each candidate, and my predictions as to the fate of each:
Republicans:
Mostly because of the above, Republicans are slightly favored to keep the seat. I say "slightly" because the recent Abramoff scandals and generally low popularity of the president have taken its toll on the Republican party in Florida. Still, it is their seat to lose.
Charlie Crist: He is the favorite of "big business". the Cubans and Donald Trump (a Florida resident). He has raised $7 million, nearly half of the $15 million all candidates from both parties have raised. Crist has won two statewide elections, as Education Commissioner and most recently Attorney General.
Tom Gallager: Gallager is running to the right of Crist, and as a result has gained the de facto support of the "religious right" - a group that could comprise nearly 20% of primary voters on September 7. Gallager has run for statewide office more than a half-dozen times. His name identification is high, and he has raised $5.3 million dollars, ensuring a bruising primary for the Republican nomination. More of a "policy wonk" than Crist, Gallager is familiar with the issues and overshadowed Crist in a recent debate.
Democrats:
The Abramoff scandal, Bush's low popularity, and the guarantee of a bloody Republican primary bode well for the Democrats. However, neither candidate has raised nearly as much money as their Republican counterparts. Parity will be achieved, however, since the Republican candidates will surely blow their stuffed coffers during the primary. Neither Democratic candidate has run statewide, and as a result 3 out of 4 likely democratic primary voters don't know how they will vote. The major endorsement they are fighting for is the Teachers Union, Big Labor and Blacks (Davis has won support from U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown and Alcee Hastings, two prominent black leaders). However, unlike the Republican primary, the Democratic primary will most likely be low key, largely because Democrats can't afford a bloodbath and expect to win in November.
Jim Davis: Smith has been endorsed by former governor and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, former Democratic Party Chairman Scott Maddox, former Lt. Gov. Buddy MacKay and Rhea Chiles, the widow of popular former Gov. Lawton Chiles. Davis has raised $1.6 million. Republicans plan to cast Davis as a liberal, because his voting record in the House has adhered closely with the party line. His speeches are not real fiery, and some have compared him to a dose of "Sominex". However, he is slightly favored to take the nomination.
Rod Smith: Smith's is endorsed by former Attorney General Bob Butterworth, and a whole passel of state lawmakers and law-enforcement officials, including several sheriffs in predominately republican counties. These endorsements come as a result of Smith's "law and order" credentials gained during his tenure as a prosecutor. Smith has raised $1.3 million. Smith is the only Democrat who has unseated two Republican incumbents in Florida's heartland. Smith's populist ideology and "law and order" credentials have garnered him significant "crossover appeal" from Republicans. In a recent debate, the crowd was enamored with Smith, largely in part because of his humor and ability to connect with the average voter (he worked on his father's dirt farm).
Prediction: Crist will take the Republican nomination in a close election, largely because he has more money and the backing of most of the Republican infrastructure in the state. Smith will take the Democratic nomination, largely because his populist message will appeal to the Teachers Union and Big Labor. In the general, Smith will come out the winner. He connects with voters much better than Crist, his populist message will have appeal, his credentials as a "law and order" candidate will continue to invite crossover votes from Republicans as it has in the past, and the external Abramoff scandals and low Bush popularity will further serve to catapult Smith to victory.
Republican Primary: Crist 52%, Gallagher 48%.
Democratic Primary: Smith 54%, Davis 46%.
General Election: Smith 51%, Crist 49%.
posted by Gary at 10:31 AM
4 Comments:
Interesting analysis and predictions. As a north Florida moderate, Smith would be very dangerous to Republicans in a general election, but I think there is no way he will make it past the primary. Davis is polling strong in Tampa and Miami and has a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage. I agree with you that Crist will be the Republican nominee, as he has stronger name ID and much more money than Gallagher. Plus, Gallagher is going through some mini-scandals which will hurt his positioning as the moral candidate. My general election prediction: Crist 52%, Davis 48%.
I'm not so sure about the Democratic primary polling yet. The majority of likely democratic voters are undecided. So those numbers you allude to are largely moot.
Plus, Smith is connecting with crowds. Numerous articles cite his sense of humor and populist message as exciting the democratic base in Florida. Davis, on the other hand, is a business-as-usual candidate who puts crowds to sleep. In a primary where so relatively few people vote, especially in Democratic primaries, Smith's advantages mean a lot.
The Gallagher ethics scandal is huge. But his continued courting of the religious right will give him a huge boost in the primary. Still, I agree that Crist will take it.
However, in the event that Davis wins the primary, I still think the advantages I cite in my post will boost Davis to victory. By the time November rolls around, this race will be the Democrat's to lose.
Plus, I'm not so sure about the Davis 2-1 fundraising advantage over Smith. I sat in on a strategy meeting over the holiday break, which included Smith, and they said fundraising was about even when you combined both hard and soft money contributions.
That assertion was validated when the latest FEC report was released. I cite the report in my post. Davis has raised $1.6 million, and Smith $1.3 million.
That seems as close to parity as you're going to get.
The "Religious Right" doesn't have much of an influence in Florida? You need to brush up on your Florida politics.
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